Peace is precarious. Israel learned that yet again on October 7^th when whatever had passed for peace up until that point was shattered in a single day. But that wasn’t the first time in history that peace was shattered instantly, and it wasn’t even the first time in Israel. In 1948, in 1967, in 1973, over and over, Arab armies came together to attack Israel with the goal of completely annihilating the Jewish state.

Now it’s 2024 and many people think that what happened on October 7^th is a “worst-case scenario”. Unfortunately, that couldn’t be further from the truth, and Israel needs to acknowledge that. Not only has history shown differently time and again, but recent developments should open the eyes of anyone interested in the continued existence of Israel. Just this week, Turkish President Erdogan, a radically anti-Israel Muslim leader, openly called for an “Islamic alliance” to stand in solidarity against “the growing threat of expansionism” from Israel! First of all, the irony is palpable. In a world where Islam has expanded and colonized to encompass approximately 55 countries that are now Muslim-controlled out of about 200 or so countries on the planet, even if minuscule Israel did have its eyes on tiny Gaza and the slightly larger West Bank territories (which Israel doesn’t) that would hardly warrant the hyperbolic use of the term “expansionism”. But words and ideas don’t matter when you’re a murderous tyrant like Erdogan with a stranglehold on your country.

Then there is Egypt. Their duplicity has been exposed in recent months as the IDF has uncovered countless tunnels running from Egypt into Gaza in the area of the Rafah Gate along the so-called Philadelphi Corridor. It’s clear that these tunnels have long been in use and appear to be a primary means by which Hamas has been able to obtain their weaponry. All with the full knowledge and endorsement of Egypt. Perhaps worse, is the apparent military buildup by Egypt so close to Israel and seemingly in violation of the peace treaty between the two countries.

So let’s take off our rose-shaded glasses and look at just what is going on here, and what a true worst-case scenario could look like. What if Erdogan’s call for a “Muslim alliance” is heeded, and the Arab and broader Muslim states feel that the time is now for an all-in joint attack? What if:

1. Egypt mobilized its massive military quickly, as suggested they can in the article linked above. Egypt has a humongous army, widely considered the most powerful in the Arab world, with a vast number of tanks, personnel carriers, and trucks etc., to go along with a very large air force. While it may not be the most cutting-edge military, it is also not an aged and obsolete military. That, coupled with its sheer size, would alone present a formidable opponent for Israel.
2. Hamas, along with Palestinians in the West Bank, mustered whatever weaponry they still have for an all-out suicide-bomber-style attack frenzy even larger than October 7^th. Initially, the reports were that 2,000-3,000 Hamas attackers invaded Israel, but in recent weeks that number has been pushed up to around 7,000 in total, including non-Hamas Palestinians who apparently joined in spur-of-the-moment. A coordinated attack by Egypt and other states would surely prompt a full-on frenzy of attacks from Gaza and the West Bank involving far more people than just a few thousand.
3. Hezbollah would of course join in, launching as many of their reported 200,000 rockets/missiles/drones as they could, overwhelming Israel’s defenses. The Lebanese army, already essentially under the boot of Hezbollah, would join in as well and a full-fledged assault from Lebanon would ensue.
4. Iran would not remain on the sideline. They would launch their full arsenal of cruise and ballistic missiles as well as drones, even more than they did in April 2024, adding to the overwhelming assault coming through the air in all directions. The Iranian air force would send its planes as well to join those of the other attacking countries. As for its troops, that would be more difficult for them to be a part of the initial assault based on the logistics of moving an army not designed to travel very far (especially on short notice), but that brings us to our next player, Syria. Iran would push through Syria whatever tanks and weaponry it could that would be able to get within striking distance of Israel. And in a sustained assault, Iran would eventually be able to move its ground forces into position for a 2^nd wave invasion, and beyond.
5. Syria would join in as well. Despite Assad being neutralized as he continues his civil war on his own people (the colossal death toll of which the pro-Palestinian protestors have chosen to ignore since they can’t blame Israel for it, and highlighting Muslim-on-Muslim violence in the Middle East, Africa, or anywhere else doesn’t fit their perverted narrative), that would likely take a pause and Syria would be able to focus whatever military strength it could muster onto its border with Israel, primarily at the Golan Heights.
6. Jordan and Iraq would become involved also. While small, Jordan does have some advanced military equipment. Most importantly, their proximity would come into play as they are right up alongside Israel. The population and demographics of Jordan appear to be subject to some lack of clarity, but there are about 2-3 million people identifying as Palestinians, ruled by a Hashemite minority. The recent deadly attack covered in this article is demonstrative of the October 7^th-like attacks that they would like to pull off if they could, and Jordanians like this assailant would pour across the border Hamas-style if given a cue like the coordinated attack this article is warning about. Proxy groups throughout Iraq would use the opportunity to send missiles, drones, and rockets over Jordan and into Israel, and it’s not likely Jordan would object once this attack frenzy is underway.
7. The Houthis in Yemen have already shown in March 2024 that they can reach Israel with their missiles, and in July 2024 they actually had a successful drone attack hit Tel Aviv. They too would unload whatever weaponry they had available to join in on the attack in an attempt to overload Israel’s defense systems.
8. Then there is Saudi Arabia. It is hard to imagine that they would remain sidelined. Like Egypt, they have a powerful military. In the Saudi case, it is modern and fairly high-tech. Saudi leadership, like the other attacking nations, would be making a calculated decision on whether or not going all in on the complete destruction of Israel is worth it considering it will almost certainly come with a complete severing of ties with America and the West.
9. Turkey, with its lead instigator, Erdogan, is not all that far from Israel. Sitting just across the Mediterranean Sea, Turkey is actually closer to Israel than Iran is. And they have a navy. At the very least, Turkish and Iranian ships would engage the Israeli navy, tying up the Israelis. Turkey also likely has the ability to launch missiles and drones, adding to the huge number of incoming projectiles of all types from all directions.

Given this scenario, it is clear that a coordinated attack from all these surrounding Arab and Muslim nations, and perhaps others joining in or at least lending support (expect military supplies to flow in from Pakistan, Libya, Morocco, Tunisia, and others. Even if their militaries can’t quite reach Israel directly, those countries and others can still play a pivotal support role in many ways) would present the most existential threat Israel has ever faced. This is not 1948, 1967, 1973. These nations are far more powerful than they were then, and far more capable of coordinating an attack. Additionally, the call would be out for every Arab or Muslim who can grab an AK-47 or a grenade to head into the battle. It is possible that literally millions of attackers could join the invading trained armies in a human wave meant to overwhelm Israel’s defenses through sheer size.

The three questions are obvious. First, can Israel’s qualitative military edge prevail once again? Is the Air Force, equipped with the most modern F-35 fighter planes (along with a formidable array of other powerful aircraft), flown by the highest-trained pilots, really going to be able to handle the sheer volume of enemy planes (many of which are American F-15 and F-16’s, along with various European and Russian models) flown by the attacking militaries. Plus, defend against the potential for a massive invasion of infantry from all directions, protected by tanks and personnel carriers, and flanked by literally hundreds of thousands if not millions of Arab/Muslim soldiers and civilians who have taken up arms and joined in. All while countless rockets/missiles/drones/mortars rain explosives down from above?

The second obvious question is what will the response be from the world at large and specifically from Israel’s allies? Let’s start with the Europeans. Will Britain, France, Germany, and Italy, the four countries that through their navies and air forces can actually project power into the region, actually get involved? Are they willing to engage in what will be a full-on battle with the Muslim world? Are they ready to utilize the full strength of their militaries, risking losing billions of dollars in equipment and countless lives, all to protect Israel? And all the while knowing that Russia is on the rampage in their neighborhood and they may need that equipment before they know it to combat Russian aggression on their own doorsteps. Would that fear be the excuse that offers them cover to stand down as Israel fights for its very survival? What about the other European countries? Well, don’t expect help from Spain or Portugal. And Belgium and Netherlands are too small to offer much on their own. Poland is an ally with a powerful military, but it is land-locked and its military is designed to counter Russian ground aggression, they don’t have a projection force that can come to Israel’s aid. Greece is nearby and is an ally, but any attempt by them to intervene would be small at best. And besides, Greek involvement would almost certainly give Turkey an excuse to attack Greece, something Turkey would love to do anyway but can’t within the current peaceful world order that America maintains.

Speaking of America…that would be Israel’s best chance at survival. Before any of this began, the attackers would be calculating whether or not a shot at a future world with “no more Israel” is worth confronting the wrath of the American military. Surely, American surveillance (satellites, radars, intelligence) would see this attack coming, as would Israel and others. Would America be able to exert enough pressure to stop it before it started? So far, to this point in history since 1973, the presence of America and the understanding that America would not allow an attack like this to occur, is what has essentially prevented it. But the chessboard has changed. America has to contend with concerns over China and Russia. Even within America, there is a no-longer-tiny and clearly growing group on the Left calling for the end of Israel. Yes, it is almost certain America would intervene on behalf of Israel, but is that certainty strong enough for Jews living in Israel to stake their very existence on? As a side note, American allies like Canada, Australia, and New Zealand, who usually follow America’s lead, would possibly choose to sit this one out. And how would American involvement affect the Europeans, particularly Britain, France, Germany, and Italy, in that order? Would their decision be based solely on America’s? Is there a scenario, where like the Canadians, Aussies, and Kiwis, the Americans enter the war without the Europeans? Or if America is in, do the Euros automatically follow? Again, that’s a lot of unanswered questions if you’re an Israeli under this massive attack scenario!

Which brings us to the third and final obvious question. Nuclear weapons? It is generally accepted that Israel possesses roughly 90-200 nuclear weapons. It is assumed they can be delivered on short or even medium-range missiles. That would put most of the capitals and major cities of the invading countries within reach. Cairo, Beirut, Tehran, Damascus, Baghdad, Amman, Riyadh, even Ankara and Istanbul would all likely be within reach. If Israel does have these weapons, then surely behind the scenes these countries have been made extremely aware that there is no “end-game” where Israel is wiped out and goes down without taking everyone with them. So just end the nonsense of even considering it, would likely have been the message. If Israel doesn’t have the nuclear weapons they are believed to have, well, it is and it has been one of the all-time great bluffs. But are any of these countries willing to call Israel out on this possible bluff? That would seem to be a decision whose level of stupidity would be unmatched in history. And again, going back to question number two, even if the attackers felt for some reason that Israel didn’t have these weapons, choosing to take on Israel AND America would still seem like an equally boneheaded decision.

So where does this leave things? Well, if you are a Jew, especially if you live in Israel, you are probably hanging your hat on the answers to questions 2 and 3. Surely America would come to Israel’s aid (probably joined by the Western allies as well), and surely the attackers understand that Israel isn’t bluffing about nuclear weapons and a large-scale coordinated attack like this has no actual path to a favorable end for the attackers as they at best would destroy Israel but face complete nuclear decimation themselves. So, nothing to worry about. As horrible as October 7^th was, that kind of barbarous ground attack is the biggest threat Israel faces. Anything larger in the form of rocket, drone, and missile attacks coming from only Hezbollah and Iran can be dealt with by the increasingly effective missile defense systems already in place. But there better be someone high up in the chain of command keeping a very close eye on developments around the world. The mere thought that the doomsday scenario discussed in this article would be even remotely possible ought to mean that those in charge have been considering how to respond to such a threat in detail long ago. Erdogan wasn’t just speaking to score points with his home audience. What he illuminated was the goal of much of the Arab and Muslim world. Israel has been caught off guard to varying degrees in the past, October 7^th being the most recent unfortunate example. Israel best do everything it can in the coming years to prepare itself to defend against just such a coordinated mass attack without relying on help from anyone, even its friends!